Shuffling Forces

While much of the news on force deployments to Iraq have focused on the prospects of a drawdown in the spring of 2006, the Department of Defense is discussing the possibility of increasing forces in Iraq to provide security for the October and December elections. Often overlooked is the fact that the US has begun handing over bases and security responsibilities to Iraqi Army and police units to allow them to take control of areas deemed to be secure.

A joint U.S.-Iraqi committee has been established to identify areas that could be handed over and to work out the technical details of the transfer.

The chairman of the committee, Mouwaffak al-Rubaie, last month listed the Shiite cities of Najaf, Karbala, Samawah, Diwaniyah and Nasiriyah as well as the Kurdish areas around Sulaimaniyah and Irbil as regions that could be handed over to Iraqi control….. Iraqi officials say the Americans are already preparing to leave their base in the northern part of Najaf and will relocate at another installation about 25 miles north of the city.

Talks have already begun for withdrawal from Najaf. The handover has begun in several areas. In Tikrit, Saddam’s home town at the northernmost tip of the Sunni Triangle, three Forward Operating Bases have recently been turned over to Iraqi Security Forces. Iraqi Security Forces are managing over twenty percent of Diyala Province. The troubled towns of Buhitz and Baqubah re now sufficiently under control of Iraqi police and Army units, allowing the 3rd Brigade Combat Team to free up the 2nd Battalion of the 69th Armor Regiment to “attach itself to a Marine outfit 150 kilometers away.”

While it was not explicitly stated as to where the 2/69 Armor was redeployed, it is not unreasonable to speculate the unit was moved to assist with operations along the Euphrates. The timing to too close to be a coincidence. The Marines’ main area of operations and greatest needs are along the Euphrates River, and Haditha/Rawah region is about 150 kilometers from Buhitz/Baquba. This move would mirror the redeployment of the Stryker elements from Mosul to Rawah as the security situation in Mosul improves (note: Michael Yon’s latest from Mosul is a fascinating read. Mr. Yon captures the difficulty in fighting an insurgency in an urban campaign, yet his dispatches outline the hard but steady progress in dismantling the insurgency in Mosul.)

The increasing competency of Iraqi Security Forces, the turnover of bases to Iraqi Army units and the potential increase in forces for the upcoming elections this fall and winter will give the Coalition the unique opportunity to divert freed up units to fight in Anbar and along the Euphrates. The redeployment of the Stryker units and the 2/99 Armor Regiment demonstrates this is already happening, without the surge of US forces. Couple this with further Iraqi units coming online, and there will be additional units that can be brought to bear for the next battle in the Anbar Campaign.

Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.