London has been rocked by a series of multiple terrorist attacks directed at its transportation system. Initial reports indicate six bombs were detonated in London’s subway system and one on a double-decker bus. Casualty reports are unreliable at the moment, but if the account of Roger Clark, a witness to the bombing of the double-decker bus, is accurate, London has suffered a devastating attack.
“The top rear section of the bus exploded, ripping apart the whole of the bus,” he told CNN. “It lifted about 10 meters above the bus.” The bus, he said, had been “packed” with people.
A group calling itself “the Secret Al Qaeda Jihad Organization in Europe” has claimed responsibility. While this claim has yet to be confirmed, the attack has all of the hallmarks of an al Qaeda operation: simultaneous multiple attacks designed for shock value and high visibility media coverage, directed at vital infrastructure at their enemy’s center of gravity.
“In response to the massacre that Britain has carried out in Iraq and Afghanistan: The heroic mujahedeen has undertaken a blessed attack in London,” the statement said. “Now Britain is burning with fear, dread and dismay from north, south, east and west.”
It continued: “We have warned the British government and the British people again and again. We have carried out our promise and undertaken a blessed military attack in Britain after great efforts by the heroic mujahedeen over a long period of time to ensure the success of the attack.”
The statement also warned “Denmark, Italy and all of the Crusader governments” that they will be attacked if they do not withdraw their troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. [emphasis mine].
The usual suspects will claim the attacks were motivated by Iraq, it should be noted that involvement in Afghanistan was also declared as a motive by al Qaeda.
Based on initial reports, the operation mirrors that of the 3-11 assault on Madrid, Spain days prior to their national election. Multiple trains and stations were hit with backpack bombs during rush hour, inflicting over 200 deaths and a thousand wounded. The 3-11 attack was conducted by the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (GICM), an al Qaeda affiliate.
There are positives and negatives to the timing of this attack. From al Qaeda’s perspective, this attack is effective for the following reasons:
* Occurred during G8 summit when plenty of media is available in the UK to cover the carnage.
* Demonstrates terrorists can execute a devastating, well coordinated high casualty attack close to the point of assembly of the world’s most powerful Western leaders.
* Provides a morale boost to al Qaeda fighters. We can expect to see video of the martyrs planning and conducting the attacks appears on jihadi websites.
* The trial of influential radical Islamist cleric Abu Hamza al-Mazri began July 5 in Britain. The attack can be considered as a display of solidarity.
* Dampens British enthusiasm the day after they won their bid to host the 2012 Olympics (this was likely not planned this way as the decision was made yesterday, however it does boost the psychological effect of the attack none the less). The British will now be questioning their ability to secure London for the 2012 Olympics.
This attack works to the West’s advantage in the following ways:
* Western leaders are gathered in a single place for the G8, will be forced to discuss this issue in a meaningful fashion and will sideline issues that drained resources and attention for the West, such as Global Warming and African debt relief. Tony Blair has left the summit, but when he returns, this issue will be at the forefront of his mind, and he will receive full backing from President Bush.
* Support for Iraq is waning in the West. This attack will give President Bush and Prime Minister Blair the opportunity to restate the case that al Qaeda is actively being engaged in Iraq.
* A reminder to European governments that an active Fifth Column is embedded within their countries. This attack may enable European governments to toughen antiterrorism laws, deport or arrest radical Islamists previously untouched due to cultural sensitivities and reconsider their passive approach of policing terrorism as opposed to actively engaging terrorists overseas.
* The British people have now experienced an Islamic terror attack first hand, on their home soil. Previous al Qaeda attempts have been foiled, such as the ricin plot, and al Qaeda cells have been broken up prior to conducting operations, giving the citizens a false sense of security.
One thing is certain: the terrorist attacks in Britain will call into question the viability of the legal/policing approach to the War on Terror, as well as Europe’s immigration and asylum laws. Robert S. Leiken’s article Europe’s Angry Muslims in the July/August of Foreign Affairs explains the inherent problems with Europe’s Muslim populations and the pervasiveness of radical Islamists in the European culture. If the latest terror attacks in Britain force Europe to take a tougher stand on the Islamists in their midst and lead to the dismantlement of the vast Islamists support structure, then al Qaeda miscalculated the impact of the attack.
