US Predators killed 11 “militants” in a series of Predator strikes today in Pakistan’s Taliban-controlled tribal agency of North Waziristan.
The unmanned Predators or more deadly Reapers fired missiles at a compound and vehicles in the town of Lataka in the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan, The Associated Press reported. The Predators first fired on a compound, killing four “militants.” Two vehicles were then fired on, killing three more terrorists, including two “foreigners,” a term used to describe Arab or Central Asian al Qaeda fighters. The Predators then struck the compound as Taliban fighters attempted to recover bodies from the rubble, killing four more militants.
No senior al Qaeda or Taliban operatives have been reported killed in the strike. But the nature of the strike – multiple targets being hit in the same town, including a follow-up attack on the compound – indicates that a high-value target was the focus. US intelligence officials contacted by The Long War Journal would not comment on the target of the strike.
The Datta Khel area is administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar, the Taliban commander for North Waziristan. Bahadar provides shelter to top al Qaeda leaders as well as terrorists from numerous Pakistani and Central Asian terror groups.
Datta Khel is an al Qaeda stronghold
Datta Khel serves as a command and control center for al Qaeda’s top leaders. Several of al Qaeda’s top commanders, including Mustafa Abu Yazid, the chief financial official and commander in Afghanistan, and Abdullah Said al Libi, the commander of al Qaeda’s military, have been killed in Predator strikes in Datta Khel in the last year. [For more information on al Qaeda’s presence in Datta Khel, see LWJ report, Latest US Predator strike kills 5 in al Qaeda hub in North Waziristan.]
The US has pounded the Datta Khel area of North Waziristan this year; 23 of this year’s 85 strikes have hit targets in Datta Khel.
Today’s strike takes place as the US is seeking to disrupt a plot by al Qaeda modeled after the Mumbai terror assault. Al Qaeda operatives have been planning to carry out a terror assault targeting several major European cities. The plot is said to have been ordered by Osama bin Laden.
The US has been pounding targets in the Datta Khel, Miramshah, and Mir Ali areas of North Waziristan in an effort to kill members involved in the European plot. Al Qaeda and allied terror groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad Group, the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Party, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and a number of Pakistani and Central and South Asian terror groups host or share camps in the region.
Despite the known presence of al Qaeda and other foreign groups in North Waziristan, and requests by the US that action be taken against these groups, the Pakistani military has indicated that it has no plans to take on Hafiz Gul Bahadar, the Haqqani Network, and Mullah Nazir. Regardless of their support for al Qaeda and other terror groups, the Haqqanis, Bahadar, and Nazir are considered “good Taliban” by the Pakistani military establishment as they do not carry out attacks inside Pakistan.
The Predator strikes, by the numbers
The pace of the strikes since the beginning of September is unprecedented since the US began the air campaign in Pakistan in 2004. The 21 strikes in September is a record number, and with 10 strikes already in October, the US appears to be prepared to match last month’s pace. The previous high was 11 strikes in January 2010, after the Taliban and al Qaeda executed a successful suicide attack at Combat Outpost Chapman that targeted CIA personnel who were active in gathering intelligence for the Predator campaign in Pakistan. In the bombing at COP Chapman, seven CIA officials and a Jordanian intelligence officer were killed.
The US has carried out 85 attacks inside Pakistan this year, which is more than double the number of strikes in Pakistan just two years ago. The US exceeded last year’s strike total of 53 with a strike in Kurram in late August. In 2008, the US carried out 36 strikes inside Pakistan. [For up-to-date charts on the US air campaign in Pakistan, see LWJ Special Report, Charting the data for US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 – 2010.]
All but nine of this year’s 85 strikes have taken place in North Waziristan. Of the nine strikes that have occurred outside of North Waziristan, seven took place in South Waziristan, one occurred in Khyber, and one took place in Kurram.
The US campaign in northwestern Pakistan has targeted top al Qaeda leaders, al Qaeda’s external operations network, and Taliban leaders and fighters who threaten both the Afghan and Pakistani states as well as support al Qaeda’s external operations. [For a list of al Qaeda and Taliban leaders killed in the US air campaign in Pakistan, see LWJ Special Report, Senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders killed in US airstrikes in Pakistan, 2004 – 2010.]
9 Comments
The tempo of these strikes do indeed indicate a target of high priority, as mentioned in the article. The last strike hit at personnel trying to rescue the initial targets, again indicating a high confidence level that they would be close and loyal associates. This strike may indeed have significant results.
Hopefully this is a big hit on AQ HVTs. However, it could also signify that our intelligence is picking up a lot of noise that the feared Mumbai-style terrorist attack is imminent. Also, regarding the strike on the so-called “rescuers”, we probably would do that as often as possible if it were not for fact that AQ or Taliban, in anticipation, would purposely send out women and children as drone-fodder to create a propaganda victory. We’ve refrained from doing this, but probably now figured that our abstinence lulled them into daring a genuine “rescue” enabling us to catch them off guard. We will soon see.
Hitting a target a second time after the “rescue” crew arrives on the scene is taking a page out of Al Qaedas handbook. It might just indicate somebody important was in that house. Also, the hit on the two cars is interesting. Seems like when we strike an automobile, an hvt is usually present.
I don’t think the follow-up strike indicate efforts to kill the “first responders”. I think it’s designed to “disincentivize” the rescuers so the wounded in the first (targeted) attack are more likely to die. Or to let the “first responders” select the surviving highest value targets in need of aid and then killing those targets. After all they picked an initial target(s) to hit and you want to kill all of them.
As I’ve pointed out this is not about low-level Taliban/AQ/HN/etc plinking this is about killing particular important people.
I suspect again they’re hitting external ops related to the recent European plots. They didn’t get a number of them the first time around including 50% of two pairs of German brothers (see comments on previous threads). I’m sure they’re pretty annoyed so we really want them dead now so they don’t get a chance to avenge their brothers. Plus anyone else planning those attacks and especially any foot soldiers with EU passports.
It could be an other HVT but I think given the location perhaps not. After the recent hits in Datta Khel I would suspect AZ has left for a safer area if he was there.
And speaking of tempo: it’s dropped off from the frenetic rate of the last few weeks. I was wondering if the original HUMINT (from interrogation) is now out of new info and they’ve been using “other/technical means” to come up with new targets.
I’ll believe it when I see it, but if this happens it would be helpful.
A bit more info on the strikes:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\10\14\story_14-10-2010_pg7_3
There can be three valid reasons for a follow-on strike-first, there may not have been time/position to get all missiles/bombs off without increasing the risk of collateral damage, two, a follow on strike on the dmpi would increase the likelyhood for a good kill on the primary HVT and three, it is likely to kill any ‘squirters’ that return to retrieve the dead and wounded.
“The Predators first fired on a compound, killing four ‘militants.’ Two vehicles were then fired on, killing five more terrorists, including two ‘foreigners,’ a term used to describe Arab or Central Asian al Qaeda fighters. The Predators then struck the compound as Taliban fighters attempted to recover bodies from the rubble, killing four more militants.”
Bill:
You might wish to correct this story’s headline from “U.S. Predators kill 11 ‘militants'” to “U.S. Predators kill 13 ‘militants.'” Unless there is a mistake somewhere in the numbers reported above, the correct total is 13, (4 + 5 + 4).
Please delete this post after correcting the discrepancy here. Thanks.
My theory is that the flurry of predator strikes is more to soften up the Taliban in order to bring them to the table. I believe that we are seeing the end game unfold here, with the US looking to disengage under the pretext of a peace treaty between Karzai and the Taliban. If this is true, then this would be downright capitulation to the Taliban – it really wouldn’t be long before Karzai joined Najibullah in dangling from a streetlamp, castrated.
Worse, we would be ceding control to an internationalized and emboldened jihadi movement and setting the stage for 9-11s to happen all over Europe and the US. I hope, instead, that we have the wisdom and foresight to continue the predator war for a long time too come, even after we have withdrawn most of the boots from the ground. This is an existential war, and one that we must win militarily.