The Taliban are in control of much of the northern district of Dir despite claims by senior Pakistani officials that the region was secured after a day’s fighting.
The Pakistani military operation, which began on April 26, focused on the Madain region in the southern portion of the district of Dir. The Madain region hosts the home town of Sufi Mohammed, the pro-Taliban cleric who is behind the Malakand Accord, the peace agreement that established sharia in Malakand, Dir, Chitral, Swat, Shangla, Buner, and Kohistan and put an end to military operations in Swat.
“The government’s writ seems non-existent for nearly 20km from the southern tip of the district,” the BBC reported. Security checkpoints have been abandoned in many regions outside of Timergara, the main city in Lower Dir. The Taliban often patrol the region and establish checkpoints to monitor traffic.
The Taliban are in control of the Chakdara-Talash region and the main road that connects Dir to the Taliban hotbed of Kabal, a sub-district in Swat. This region is used to allow Taliban forces in the Bajaur tribal agency to link up with their brethren in Swat. Dir also borders Afghanistan, and serves as a conduit for Taliban forces transiting the border.
The reports from Dir conflict with triumphant statements made by Pakistani political and military officials on April 27, just one day after the operation began. Interior Minister Rehman Malik claimed Dir was under complete control of the security forces. Army Spokesman Major General Athar Abbas said the military successfully completed the Dir operation and claimed 75 Taliban fighters and 10 security personnel were killed during the fighting.
But the Taliban have disputed Abbas’ claim that 75 fighters, including a commander named Maulana Shahid, were killed. A Taliban spokesman claimed Shahid was alive, and that only four Taliban fighters were killed. The Pakistani military often inflates Taliban casualties and claims senior Taliban leaders are killed. These leaders more than often appear in the media and mock the Army.
The Pakistani military has relied on artillery and helicopter and air strikes to target the Taliban, and rarely can confirm enemy casualties. The heavy-handed tactics result in villages being leveled and the alienation of the civilian population.
The military and government’s claims of a quick victory in Dir are disputed by Pakistani civilians on the ground.
“When the government announced the end of operations yesterday, we were hopeful that things will get back to normal,” Haji Anwaruddin, the president of the Timerjara traders’ association told the BBC.
“But now we know they [the Pakistani government] are bluffing,” Anwaruddin said. “They want the world to know that fighting has ended when it hasn’t. I think we are in for a long haul.”
The residents of Dir as well as in Buner, where a concurrent military operation against the Taliban is underway, fear that the security situation will deteriorate as it has throughout the Northwest Frontier Province, where the Taliban control much of the province and fighting in neighboring regions such as Swat and Bajaur has raged for years.
32 Comments
To be frank, i feel LWJ always exaggerates things in Pak in negative way. Hardly there been any positive report on Pak security since long. BBC report quoted in current LWJ article quotes some people talking about recent past, while elaborates on civilian plight. Press freedom in Pak always been good, and i don’t think army can inflate body count.
To be Frank, I believe you are living in denial, Minnor.
I’d like nothing more than to see the Pakistani government and military succeed against the Taliban. I’d gladly tout a military victory against the Taliban. Honestly, nothing would make me happier. The security of my country, the West, Pakistan, India, most of the world depends on Pakistan having success. And I’m not suicidal.
But the reality is Pakistan is failing, and miserably. And it is my job to explain this.
As far as inflating enemy body counts: that has been proven in the past. And please explain to me why all of these guys touted as killed by the Pakistan Army wound up alive. It’s always embarrassing when guys like Qari Hussain show up at a publicly held press conference to mock the government and no one shows up to arrest him:
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/10/pakistan_has_poor_tr.php
Oh, and add Rashid Rauf to that list.
You’ve yet to explain how the Taliban has spread from small pockets in Waziristan and Bajaur in 2002 to being on the doorstep of Islamabad and in the foyer of Peshawar. And how this reflects well on Pakistan’s efforts to halt this advance. Pakistan’s default position in 2004 is the same as it is today: peace agreements. Even as you fight in Dir and Buner, you beg a man that advocates violence against Pakistan and denounces democracy to restart the “peace process”:
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2009\04\30\story_30-4-2009_pg7_33
Even after your own government admitted it had intercepts between Sufi’s son-in-law and his military commanders that prove the government was being lied to:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/12-operation-triggered-by-taliban-plan-to-take-over-buner–bi-07
The reality is Pakistan has shown a minimal interest in fighting the Taliban, or prosecuting those behind the Mumbai attacks, or taking down al Qaeda sanctuaries, or dismantling LeT/JuD or whatever it calls itself this week.
You want me to continue, Minnor? I could do this all day and night. But I won’t, I’ll leave that to other readers/commenters who could do this far better than I can.
Oh, and let me add one more point. If you think the Pakistani military wouldn’t lie, let me tell my favorite story to dispel that one.
On Jan 18, 2008, the Taliban overran the South Waziristan fort of Saklatoi. Yet ISPR spokesman Major General Athar Abbas stood in front of the media and said: The loss of Saklatoi is “absolutely baseless and I reject this report …I want to clarify that the Pakistan Army and the Frontier Corps personnel are still present in the fort.”
Two days later Abbas briefed about the glorious joint raid by the SSG/FC to retake the Saklatoi Fort.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/01/pakistani_army_retak.php
During the Jan 2008 Waziristan battles, the military repeatedly lied abut casualties, number of troops captured, etc. This has happened in Swat, Bajaur, Khyber, etc….
My other favorite story is when the Taliban captured an entire company of regular Army troops in South Waziristan in Aug 2007. The ISPR spokesman claimed they were lost / lost contact due weather. then he grudgingly admitted 100 troops were captured, but then said it was 300 troops captured only after the Taliban displayed them to that lying, negative BBC, no less.
Bill, Taliban forced to go underground in many places like Swat, Bajaur, and now Dir. Neighboring places like Chitral, Upper Dir and Khyber at least Taliban not daring overground, but LWJ map shows those red instead of brown. I agree Pak police did not do much to stop spread of Taliban – especially to underground operations – and they grew since 2002 and dared overground. Police being local is more sympathetic to taliban over army. But Pak is gaining ever since 2008 Bajaur, especially in north of Peshawar. Also war fatigue in Swat called for deal, but Pak won in neighborhood.
Especially Dir was much called for[recent past], where apparently Taliban is now decimated by latest offensive. But Pak does not have endless pocket for migrating population, they handled Dir very well in this perspective. IMO, with due respect, projecting to world as Pak doing nothing won’t be good for the mission.
Hey Bill, I’m kinda confused. Does the Taliban control upper dir or the upper part of lower dir?
Another question (for the sake of my own map I am making covering all Pakistan), I would like to know why Bajaur hasn’t been changed back to at least contested status since the government managed to make some gains in the area, even if the Taliban are still extant there (and have been forced into a ceasefire from a position of weakness in a reversal from what happened in Swat).
Has the Pakistani Army ever given a detailed explanation of how its use of long-range artillery, F-16 bombing runs, and helicopter attacks could contribute to the success of counterinsurgency operations like Buner and Dir?
What I see are photo ops for credulous domestic and Western reporters, and see-we’re-acting-tough rationales for U.S. donors of military aid. If I or my family actually lived in these areas, I’d be none too happy.
Minnor,
You’ve failed to answer the questions. Which does not surprise me in the least because you don’t have a good answer. I’ve given you direct evidence of the military being untruthful about its operations and killing the enemy. Anyone who remotely tracks Pakistan’s operations knows this. You do as well but you’re just not being honest with us.
The military has done so well they’ve allowed the Taliban to take the fight to Buner. You say the “Taliban is now decimated by latest offensive” and there is nothing I see that supports that conclusion. If you want to take the word of Malik and Abbas, then that is your problem, not mine. As I’ve demonstrated several times, these gentlemen leave much to be desired in the honesty category.
It really is sad that the Taliban is more reliable when it comes to information on casualties. But there we are.
Is it me or am I the only one noticing that the “Taliban is now decimated” in more and more districts closer and closer to Islamabad? Pretty soon they’ll be decimated in Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore, Faisalbad…. Karachi is perhaps the only major city I might believe it because the MQM is the only party out there with the guts to take a stand against the Taliban.
Spooky,
Bajaur remains red because:
1) I don’t accept the government’s claim that it defeat the Taliban, or even has them on the ropes. Recently the Taliban talked about issuing amnesty for anyone who opposed them (tribal leaders, etc.)
2) There is a cease fire in effect. Ceasefires/peace deals tell you plenty about how well the Paksitani military has done.
3) Part of the peace agreement was that Faqir Mohammed and other senior Taliban leaders were to be turned in, and the Taliban was to disarm. None of that happened, nor will it.
4) The Taliban are still bombing schools and attacking security forces, and the military abides by the peace deal.
That’s for starters.
AMac,
Exactly. You can believe Rehman Malik or Athar Abbas, who have a political need to project success, or you can believe someone like Haji Anwaruddin, who has to live with the Taliban in Dir.
I have started reading LWJ few days back it is place where I can get in depth information of past and present my province N.W.FP in particular and in general about Pakistan.
I have few questions if any can answer.
1.Who is giving financial support, arms and communication equipments to Taliban?
2.Despite having satellite spying technology, why they (Taliban) are un-traceable?
3.Why Taliban’s FM Channels are up and running for a long time; Army or unmanned plans are unable to destroy any one yet.
Khan, Let me try to answer your questions.
1. You can buy communications equip and arms anywhere either directly or via smuggling. Its a huge market. Only thing you need is money. Now Afghan supplies around 90% of worlds opium worth about $500m a year.
So the West, by consuming significant fraction of that opium, is fighting War on Terror on both sides.
2. Insurgency is much tougher to fight, whatever your technology, unless you have a biological weapon that kills a person with a particular DNA. Not developed yet.
Its easy to hide among civilians. So either you kills a bunch of civilians along with Taliban or you don’t act at all, unless there is very precise intelligence, which is rare.
3. Thats PA’s incompetence or unwillingness.
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the blog post From the Front: 04/30/2009 News and Personal dispatches from the front and the home front.
Bill, as for death of commanders mentioned by you, unknown commanders difficult to confirm by dead body. Pak may hide casualties on own side as shown by you – that is common politics worldwide, but they can’t inflate enemy body count – press freedom always been there even when pak was under army chiefs in history. There had been no drone attacks in Bajaur means confirmation of claims, while they are continuing in Waziristan and Orakzai.
I started tracking lately, and I reserve my observation on Buner for now. They set up their base in Buner mountain passes in operating underground, and sympathetic local police may not pass intelligence. Also pak destroying taliban infrastructure that has been constructed in years.
Minnor,
How do you destroy an ‘idea’? After all what Taliban, of which ever stripe, ask for is something for which Pakistan was established namely and Islamic state and such because the founders didn’t have the vision to implement Sharia we have the Taliban.
I personally have no problems with Islamic states, because that is what the people who live their ask for and that is what they get.
So I don’t have a problem with the Taliban. What I do have a problem with is people who come into my home and blow me up just because I choose to remain a kafir.
But now we know they [the Pakistani government] are bluffing,” Anwaruddin said.
They are not lying, they are bluffing. I get it now.
Masood Sharif Khan Khattak, former Director-general of the Intelligence Bureau – Pakistan, commenting on THE NEWS INTERNATIONAL recently stated:
1. It is also not going to be long before the cash starved US public starts calling for an end to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; a call no US administration will be able to ignore. This region will then be lost to the USA for many decades to come.
It seems Pakistan is betting on Celente coming good on his “prediction” that the US dollar will get devalued by 90% by 2009 end. Important people in Pakistan, aligned to the military, it seems are hoping and praying for the financial demise of US and strengthening of China.
In this anticipation, they are trying to outwit the Americans – the Pak Army thinks it can really twiddle the US along. The attacks on Neo-Talibans will continue but continue to see ZERO action on the “Afghan Taliban” and the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks.
This time, many things have changed and the US is no longer willing to get “totally” suckered.
General Petraeus isn’t any more hopeful than Bill.
Fox News: Petraeus: Next Two Weeks Critical to Pakistan’s Survival
I am academic scholar of the region for over 20+ years. I am new to this blog but wanted to put the situation into context for Minnor and others who believe that the situation in Pakistan is not as dire as it may appear in the press.
Pakistan armed forces number approximately 700,000 troops. They have an additional reserve force of 500,000. That’s over 1.2 million troops excluding the paramilitary and police! The entire Taliban force in Dir has been estimated between several hundred to several thousand. The Pakistan military could easily flood Dir with a huge influx of soldier. The sheer force concentration would be enough to defeat the Taliban and dissuade others from of challenging the militaries writ. The fact that they don’t illustrates their utter weakness.
In a recent post on LWJ Bill Riggio explained the inability of the military to engage such a force was due to their fear of a mutiny – or worse a coup! Like Pakistani society the military is made up of several different ethnic groups and the Pashtuns officers are unwilling to go along with their higher ups. More than likely many are helping their Pashtun brethren already. This is why the army wants to keep their regular troops out of the fray. The Generals know that if they were introduced into the battle, large numbers would quickly switched side and the game would be up! Hence they are kept far from the fray along the Indo-Pakistani border defending against a false threat of India attack.
I should point out that this same splintering is also happening in overall Pakistani society. Just yesterday there were reports of sectarian clashes between Pashto and Urdru communities in Karachi. BBC had 20 dead but the numbers could be much higher.
Basically what we are seeing is a Pashtun lead class / religious movement that is taking over the country using horrible violence with no other force to counter it. The stronger they get the more they are permenentaly able to change Pakistani society forever. In my opinion it’s only a matter of time before Karachi falls.
Pashtun dominated regular military units should be shifted to the Indian border, and Punjabi/Sindh dominated units, preferably infantry, commando, special ops, etc., should be committed to the NWFP’s. These units would not be compromised at all. In addition, flatten every, and I mean every madras in the NWFP. You can give these faciilities a one week notice to collateral damage. THese are functional the central command posts for the Taliban. This will force them to go to ground, making it harder for them to communicate, coordinate, etc. Then let loose the commando’s. Will it happen, No. Will some type of hybrid op evolve. Maybe.
Hey Bill, I still need clarification on my Dir question.
Between the reports from Pakistan military offers, the Pakistan government, the US government, the LWJ and my local Pakistani grocer, I give the most weight to what my local grocer tells me followed by the LWJ. My grocer tells me Pakistan will fall in three months. I hope he’s wrong.
K Khan… The question of who is financing the Taliban is my own favorite. As the Iraq war raged I kept waiting to hear about where al Qaeda was getting their money. I speculated that it was Putan.
“who is financing?”
How much does Heroin support the Jihad movement?
Seems like a cash cow.
Flooding the area with thousands of troops is first of all expensive (US spends $800 million per day, which Pakistan cannot even spend per month!) and also not an automatic solution to the taliban phenomenon. The surge in Iraq succeeded as much because of the bribes and other incentives given to sunni awakening members and also the use of shia militias against al qaeda.
So, it’s true that pakistan has made huge mistakes and the will to take on the talibs has been lacking, but in case anybody has noticed, the NATO/US forces in Afghanistan aren’t doing such a stellar job themselves. And it’s not all because of the safe havens in pakistan, as much of the taliban control is also in the eastern provinces and due to local sympathy. When Taliban were streaming in from kunar in Afghanistan to bajaur, and NATO was unable to stop them, why did no one blame NATO then for not doing their job?
And nothing wrong with using artillery, air strikes, and helicopter gunships. US forces do this during almost every firefight. Yes, they have the advantage of more precision due to better technological capability, but beyond that, it’s not much different.
Here’s a video from a US combat outpost and as you can see their situation is not all that different from the situation in pakistani bases and forts across the border.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2hnXgrnlUQ
And guess what? They too use artillery, helicopters and air strikes. At the end of the day, it’s a hard war and NATO/US with all of its tech advantages is struggling, yet every posting on this site focuses on paksitan’s missteps only. Where’s the focus on the fact that according to one study 75% of Afghanistan is under taliban control?
Yeah, I know pakistan is to blame for that too.
Well, for one, the study didn’t say 75% of Afghanistan is under Taliban control. It said there is one attack per week in 72% of Afghanistan’s districts. That’s no where near the same thing. One attack per week would be paradise in Pakistan.
There is nothing wrong with using artillery, air strikes, and helicopter gunships, if they are used wisely. Pakistanis believe wisely means levelign towns as a matter of course. The US has learned this is a bad idea.
If Pakistan can’t flood its own soil with its own soldiers then you have really, really big problems.
Pakistan won’t defeat Taliban because Pakistan doesn’t want to. Expecting the Pakistani army to destroy Taliban is like expecting the Lebanese army to destroy Hezbollah. Even if you point a gun at their heads they won’t do it. At most, they’ll put on a show of doing so.
The only way to get the Pakistani army to seriously fight the Taliban is to restructure them and make them truly subordinate to the civilian govt. Right now, any civilian govt that tries to tell the army what to do will end up like Rafiq Hariri or Benazir Bhutto.
When you see how easily, ruthlessly and efficiently the Pakistani security apparatus carried out the recent assassination of some Baloch nationalists, quickly abducting them and dumping their bodies in the street, it’s obvious that Pakistan certainly has the means to kill rebellious elements without hesitation or compunction, if it has an interest to do so. But in the case of Taliban, the Pak military simply does not. The Taliban have always been and continue to be an instrument of national policy for Pakistan. The Pakistanis aren’t going to kill their precious assets, no matter how much lip service they pour out for the gullible gringo tourists. The crumblier Pakistan’s failing state gets, the more Islamist militancy is seen as a vital glue to keep any wayward crumbs in place.
Bill,
So, it is an attack per week in 72% of Afghanistan’s district. Isn’t that something you should be blogging about on why the sophisticated NATO forces have failed to curb this? Why NATO could not stop taliban from crossing the border from kunar? Why the opium production is in an all time high? By all means, Pakistan needs to be criticized for many many things, but what amazing achievement other then pushing taliban into pakistan has the US led coalition done in Afghanistan? Show us results we can emulate in Pakistan against taliban type warfare.
It’s easy to tell a poor country with internal divisions already to flood parts of the country with soldiers when that would be a huge cost burden when current funds for existing operations will run out in on month. Pakistani soldiers don’t have the luxury of immediate availability of air assets, NVGs, thermal imagine etc. that they can declare wars on all taliban areas in pakistan and defeat them.
sanman,
If it’s only a matter of will then why is that the BLA and MQM forces are still functioning in pakistan today?
Anjan, this is not a pure numbers game, if it was there would no taliban left in afghanistan today after all the NATRO engagements.
Zalmay,
MQM were ethnic associates of Musharraf. You may not remember, but when early public protest gatherings began against the Musharraf regime, there were some “suicide bomb” explosions that conveniently happened to make people afraid of attending public gatherings, and there were also MQM gunmen firing in the streets. If you regularly pay attention MQM propaganda, you’d have noticed that MQM propaganda were vehemently in support of Musharraf. They were very sad to see their co-ethnic friend removed from power. Blood is thicker than water.
As for BLA, you saw how Musharraf bellowed, “They won’t know what hit them!” We’ve all seen the photos of TOW missiles being used against BLA. Nobody was surrounding Pak military troops and abducting them or forcing them to surrender. The Pak army more than willing to fight separatists, and have a history of using napalm against Baloch villages. Nobody in Islamabad ever frets about “alienating the people” in Balochistan, just as none of them ever fretted about alienating them in East Bengal, where people were massacred by the millions.
The Pak military is putting on a show in the northwestern areas. They don’t care to defeat Taliban – why would they? Which matters more to Pakistanis – the silly gringos on the other side of the world, or their fellow brothers-in-arms for Islam? Whatever some few naive urban upperclass Pakistanis may feel in front of foreign cameramen, their opinions don’t outweigh that of Pakistan’s overwhelming majority of poor and rural people, many of whom are barely literate, or equate literacy with reading the Koran.
Zalmay,
So you want to deflect the problems in Pakistan by pointing the finger at Afghanistan?
I suggest you look at the archives, I was saying the situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating for some time now. I’ve written about the encroachment on Kabul. Would you like for me to write about a several months old report on a daily basis?
The situation in Afghanistan is relatively static & arguably improving in some areas as US troops are moved in (Logar/Wardak particularly).
Hey, if Pakistan doesn’t have the will to send its troops into the NWFP to halt a Taliban advance, then enjoy the Taliban rule. Go ahead and put a price on that. It isn’t about money or equipment, those are red herrings used by the government and apologists as an excuse for inaction & half measures. This battle requires infantry and sacrifice and will. Pakistan is rich in the first and dirt poor in the latter two.
Zalmay
What is the difference (cost wise) to have a Pakistani division (Regular Army) to be stationed in Swat than to be stationed on the Eastern border with India?
Are you familiar with the phrase:
Two ships that pass in the Night
The Taliban had control of a significant part of Afghanistan until the U.S. and Northern Alliance worked together in late 2001.
The Taliban had a smaller amount of control – influence in Pakistan until 2002 and it has been increasing since.
Afghanistan and Pakistan appear to be nearing a crossing point with Pakistan rapidly sliding to the Place that NATO is trying to keep Afghanistan from falling back into.
Pakistan had knowledge that the Taliban were coming across the border in 2001 when they were dislodged from Afghanistan.
There were even some Pakistanis amonst the Taliban.
Sufi Mohammad comes to mind as one and weren’t there even some from the Pakistani Army?
Yes there were…
The ‘Airlift of evil’
Pakistan had ample opportunity to stop the Taliban in recent years, but kept caving in and making more Peace Deals.
————————————————————-
Here is a nice read from a Pakistani source
Bad news and worse
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Pakistani soldiers don’t have the luxury of immediate availability of air assets, NVGs, thermal imagine etc. that they can declare wars on all taliban areas in pakistan and defeat them.
A start would be to station a few divisions in the contested areas and show the common citizens that the Army is there to protect them. The use of standoff weapons like artillery, helicopters etc causes quite a bit of damage which endangers the peaceful citizens.
Sanjay,
I don’t understand your post. The point is that the baloch insurgents and MQM, 2 militant groups opposed to central government are alive and well despite the attempts of the pakistani government and military over many years to defeat them. Why? Because it is not easy to defeat insurgencies like these. Case in point: India maoists and tribals in the northeast are still very active.
Bill,
It seems the opposite, some americans seem to want to deflect their less then stellar success in Afghanistan onto Pakistan. I don’t wish for taliban rule anywhere in the world, especially not for pashtuns. But to think this is simply a numbers game of how many boots can be on the ground is also inaccurate. If it was purely a numbers game, no taliban would remain from the causalities they get in Afghanistan. It’s easy for you to say that equipment is not an issue when western forces have easy availability of air assets to evacuate them when needed or call in air strikes when surrounded by taliban.
bard207,
The army is not on an active front in the east. There is a huge difference in cost and training and equipment needs of deploying units trained in tank warfare on the plains of punjab or deserts of sindh in mountain terrain to conduct counter insurgency. It costs more to train all units properly in counter insurgency.
In the end, pakistan can do many things better and with more determination, but what has the US achieved by ignoring Afghanistan in favor of Iraq after the invasion for the second time in history? And Afghanistan and Pakistan issues are interrelated.
Zalmay,
The army is not on an active front in the east. There is a huge difference in cost and training and equipment needs of deploying units trained in tank warfare on the plains of punjab or deserts of sindh in mountain terrain to conduct counter insurgency. It costs more to train all units properly in counter insurgency.
In regards to the training, it appears that it is already being conducted.
Taliban Shift Forces, but Hold Pakistan Valley
Admiral Mullen said he watched some of the counterinsurgency training under way in Pakistan and was fairly impressed. Every division is undergoing 14 weeks of counterinsurgency training, which has been put in place over the last 12 to 18 months.
“The troops I saw were actually doing training, 6 weeks of a 14-week curriculum, and then they are headed for the western border for the better part of a year,”
Zalmay said:” “
There are some commenting here in efforts to put things in a positive light for Pakistan. They fail miserably and create an overall negative impact when they are unwilling to finish what they have started.